Photo: Russian Reader
Donald Trump’s stunning political comeback has created an opening for Russia to shatter Western unity on Ukraine and redraw the global power map, according to several influential members of the Russian elite.
In the corridors of power in Moscow, the win for Trump’s populist argument that America should focus on domestic woes over aiding countries like Ukraine was being hailed as a potential victory for Russia’s efforts to carve out its own sphere of influence in the world.
In even broader terms, it was seen as a victory for conservative, isolationist forces supported by Russia against a liberal, Western-dominated global order that the Kremlin (and its allies) have been seeking to undermine.
In his first remarks since the election, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the West’s post-Cold War monopoly on global power was “irrevocably disappearing,” before going on to praise Trump for behaving “courageously” during an attempt on his life this summer.
“His words about his desire to restore relations with the Russian Federation and to help resolve the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserve attention,” he said during his annual speech at the Valdai Forum in Sochi.
Members of Russia’s elite were more blunt in their response to Trump’s victory.
“We have won,” said Alexander Dugin, the Russian ideologue who has long pushed an imperialist agenda for Moscow and supported disinformation efforts against Kamala Harris’s campaign. “The world will be never ever like before. Globalists have lost their final combat,” he wrote on X.
The deputy speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, Konstantin Kosachev, said on his Telegram channel: “The victory of the right in the so-called ‘free world’ will be a blow to the left-liberal forces that dominate it. It is not by chance that Europe was so openly ‘rooting’ for Harris, who would, in fact, preserve the rule of the Obama-Clinton ‘clan.’”
Konstantin Malofeyev, the Russian Orthodox billionaire who has funded a conservative agenda promoting traditional Christian values on the far right and far left across the West, crowed on Telegram that it would be possible to negotiate with Trump, “both about the division of Europe and the division of the world. After our victory on the battlefield.”
In more immediate terms, Trump’s election victory was expected to have a dramatic impact on Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to Leonid Slutsky, head of the parliament’s foreign affairs committee.
“Judging by the pre-election rhetoric … the Republican team is not going to send more and more American taxpayer money into the furnace of the proxy war against Russia,” he said. “Once the West stops propping up [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky’s neo-Nazi regime, its downfall will happen in a matter of months, if not days.”
But others were more circumspect, and some warned that Trump’s presidency could lead to a more unpredictable era. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would wait to see if Trump’s campaign rhetoric, criticizing support for Ukraine and calling for an end to the war, translated into “concrete actions.” Peskov declared that the United States remains “an unfriendly country that directly and indirectly is involved in a war against our state.”
Russian lawmaker Maria Butina, who served 15 months in a U.S. federal prison after being convicted of operating as an unregistered foreign agent, told the Washington Post that this was “a good chance for U.S.-Russian relations to improve.” She added, “Hopefully this time … Trump will keep his promise to truly be a peacemaker.”
In the weeks before the election, Russian officials had sought to downplay their interest in the vote, but that public stance was belied by what U.S. officials said were intensifying Kremlin-directed disinformation operations seeking to stoke chaos and target Harris. The operations built on earlier efforts to stoke isolationist sentiments, according to documents previously reported on by the Post.
In the end, Russian efforts to interfere in the 2024 election were “pretty marginal to the overall trend of voter sentiment,” said Eric Ciaramella, a former White House official now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, especially compared with 2016, when U.S. intelligence officials concluded that a Russian hack-and-leak operation had helped change the narrative in support of Trump.
But analysts also noted that more than a decade of Russian propaganda operations amplifying antiestablishment, isolationist voices through increasingly sophisticated social media operations, including on X, had changed the mainstream political debate in a way that would never have been possible via traditional media.
“On a digital platform, your ability to do these things works,” said Clint Watts, the head of Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center. After the vote, X owner Elon Musk hailed the result as cementing the power of his platform to provide alternative views over “legacy media.”
Russia’s business community also could not hide its sense of optimism that Trump’s victory would change things for the better, in the Russian view.
Shares on the Moscow stock exchange surged nearly 3 percent in early trading as the election results came in, amid widespread speculation that Trump could lift sanctions against Russia in return for an end to its military action.
“Trump is someone who is used to doing deals,” said one Moscow businessman, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. “The expectation is that under Trump, decisions will be reached faster to end the conflict and ease sanctions.
“For big business, Trump’s election is a hopeful factor,” he added. “Sanctions are strangling the economy, and costs are soaring.”
But share prices later settled, and some analysts said risks remain high that relations could run aground and that the standoff could worsen under Trump. Alexei Venediktov, the well-connected longtime editor of the Echo of Moscow radio station, said the possible Republican capture of both houses of Congress would break the long-standing deadlock in the U.S. political system, letting the government reach decisions at far greater speed and creating new risks.
The Republican majority “is the threat from the Kremlin’s point of view, because there are no internal contradictions, no internal chaos,” Venediktov said. “It was important for the Kremlin that the winning candidate was Mr. or Mrs. Chaos.”
A clear sign of the lack of Kremlin trust in President-elect Trump, Venediktov said, was Putin’s decision not to immediately congratulate him as other leaders had. “This is actually an insult,” he said. “It’s a signal.”
Putin waited until the third hour of his annual speech Thursday to congratulate Trump, first discussing inequality, artificial intelligence and climate change.
But others said Putin’s move was in fact a sign of the Kremlin’s growing confidence. Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst, said the expectation is that Trump will eventually, though not immediately, call Zelensky and Putin and propose a cease-fire deal along the lines of one already floated by his running mate, JD Vance, which appears to hand Russia the Ukrainian territory it already controls.
Under this proposal, a cease-fire would be reached along the current front line, together with the creation of a large demilitarized buffer zone, with new borders to be ratified under later referendums. “If everything goes okay, then Trump will lift sanctions” to pull Moscow out of China’s orbit, Markov said.
But Markov and other analysts said Putin is unlikely to agree to any deal that does not include the complete demilitarization of Ukraine, which even Trump might reject. “Putin wants what no one can give him,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
One possibility, though, would be an agreement in which Moscow and Kyiv would halt strikes on energy and power infrastructure, Markov suggested, an arrangement that was under discussion this summer, until Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. “This would be a colossal victory for Trump,” Markov said.
Thomas Gomart, director of the French Institute for International Relations, said other far-right and far-left political forces in Europe — many of which have been supported by Moscow — could be boosted by Trump’s win.
They could call for a U.S. rapprochement with Russia, potentially ushering in a new era in which politics would be dominated by autocrats, and in which the winning coalition of Trump, Vance and Musk would introduce a new disruptive ideology. “In a sense, it could be a new realignment in Europe,” Gomart said.
“This is a very good moment against the globalist deep state,” said Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, a far-right French politician and former member of the European Parliament who once facilitated a 9.4 million euro ($10.1 million) loan from a Russian bank to the presidential campaign of the French far right’s Marine Le Pen. “It’s a moment for Europe to make a bridge with conservative America” and align with Russia, he said.
“It can be a new era,” Schaffhauser said.
Source: Francesca Ebel and Catherine Belton, “‘We have won’: Russians envision new global system with Trump victory,” Washington Post, 7 November 2024
“We face, in November 2024, Vladimir Putin’s possibly last gamble to try to avoid a stalemate and to try to avoid the frustration of his hopes with Donald Trump.”
Donald Trump’s election is no guarantee of success for Putin in Ukraine, says Prof. Scott Lucas on Frontline.
Source: Times Radio (YouTube), 7 November 2024
Facing the camera, Maria Barbieri had the clippers out. Donald Trump had just been elected US president and the creator, who posts under the handle @girl_dumphim, woke up “feeling spicy.” She tried to shave her head, eventually grabbing scissors and cutting off chunks at a time. “Giving up on America? [I] have,” she says in a TikTok posted Wednesday morning. “Also given up on coloring this hair, because, right? Fuck coloring my hair. Fuck having my hair be long and luxurious … Fuck being all the things that the patriarchy wants us to be because, clearly, they don’t give a shit about us.”
A floating bit of text on the video reads “Opting out. 4B”—a reference to the feminist movement, started in South Korea, encouraging women to not marry, date, sleep with, or have children with men until all genders have equal rights. As of this writing, it’s gotten more than 3 million views.
Barbieri was just one of several people who posted videos about 4B on Wednesday. Another says, “Doing my part as an American woman by breaking up with my Republican boyfriend last night & officially joining the 4b movement this morning.” It has nearly 9 million views and the poster, @rabbitsandtea, did several follow-up videos to respond to comments about her decision and appearance.
A video from creator @smith.woods with more than 50,000 views joined the movement with this message: “Trans girls, lock it up.”
“There’s no sleeping with men that is worth risking your life and your safety,” says TikTokker Regan, who goes by @ftheniceguy on TikTok, also encouraged women to swear off men (though she herself is gay). “When they have showcased time and time again that they don’t value who you are and they don’t vote for you, they don’t stand up for you. It’s important that you protect yourself when they’re not willing to protect you.”
Talk of adapting the 4B movement to American politics isn’t just taking off on TikTok. Since Tuesday, there has also been chatter on X, Threads, and r/Feminism. Google search interest in the movement shot up in the hours after it became clear Trump would win the US presidency, an election in which Trump saw big gains in his appeal to young male voters.
The 4B movement originated in South Korea, and encourages women to opt out of marriage (bihon), childbirth (bichulsan), romance (biyeonae), and sexual relationships (bisekseu). Born out of protests against South Korea’s culture—instances of dating violence, revenge porn, and gender wage gaps are widespread—the movement has grown in recent years. South Korea has the lowest birth rate of any country, and despite government incentives, many women still feel the country’s patriarchal structure makes the cost of motherhood too high, and refuse to be “baby-making machines,” according to reporting from the New York Times.
Although it started in the late 2010s, the movement didn’t really gain attention in the US until earlier this year. New York magazine published a long feature on it in March in which writer Anna Louie Sussman laid out the ways in which 4B adherents were, as Barbieri demonstrated on TikTok, cutting their hair and eschewing beauty products. “The blowback and fear that 4B practitioners experience underscores their conviction that Korea is still a frightening place for women,” Sussman wrote, noting the threats and attacks women, and specifically 4B protesters, receive.
Some creators who spoke to WIRED were already participating in the movement before the election. Dalina, who uses they/them pronouns and asked to withhold their last name for privacy reasons, was casually seeing a man when, they say, “he made a joke along the lines of like, ‘I considered coming inside of you.’” Dalina says at that moment their blood ran cold. “I thought, ‘Why does that sound like a threat?’ It’s like, because it is a threat … He also knew that it was a threat.”
Since then, Dalina, who goes by @senoracabrona on TikTok, says they have sworn off romantic and sexual entanglements with men. Their video, including text telling women to look up the 4B movement, has garnered more than 130,000 views on TikTok.
With the election of Trump, and all the threats to reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ rights and misogyny that entails, women online seemed to be channeling the fear they felt into action in similar ways.
Barbieri says when she posted her original 4B video it was the result of something she’d been investigating for several months via her involvement in feminist spaces on Reddit, Facebook, and Instagram. After her post went up, she got several negative comments from men, but was surprised to find a lot of support, particularly from women interested in the movement.
“I’m getting private messages from people all over the world who are supporting the, quote, ‘losing’ side,” Barbieri says.
TikTok creator Ashli Pollard tells WIRED that she has been practicing 4B for two years and says the experience has been freeing. “It’s just I didn’t realize how much of my upbringing and my thought process was centered around men until I decided to step away from it for a little bit,” she says. She had not shared her story publicly, however, until after the election, when she saw other women on TikTok posting about starting a 4B movement.
“I think part of it was I was furious. But I also don’t want people to think it’s just some 21-year-old on this app who is upset about the results of the election,” Pollard says. “I’m a 36-year-old and I made a very considerate decision about how I want to live my life.”
Pollard says she, like many of the women posting about 4B, has received a lot of attention—and also pushback. In the comments of some 4B videos and others discussing reproductive rights, (presumably) male users have responded with “your body, my choice,” quoting white nationalist Nick Fuentes, who jubilantly cried, “We control your bodies!” on a livestream during election night.
TikTok declined to comment on the record about whether or not the phrase violates its Community Standards, but four videos using the phrase flagged by WIRED were removed after this article published.
“[The maternal death rates] are out of this fucking world, and they keep climbing. Why on earth should anyone be subjected to that?” says Dalina. “Was the sex even that good? Was it even that great? What value are these men bringing to you if they’re not even protecting you?”
